snowmobile industry future

JoeRainville · Post by **JoeRainville** » Sun Mar 02, 2008 12:23 am

Hi Guys,

There are subjective issues such as appearance, decals or style that appeals to the current and next generation of sledders. There are performance issues such as weight, power and handling that involve CG, traction, clutching, manufacturing and materials. Then there are legal issues such as emissions, noise, fuel consumption and safety.

Taking that into account the OEM's must meet all these requirements from the market and regulators while trying to make a profit and maintain or grow market share in a down market coming off several lousy winters.

Down the road there are much larger issues that are not being considered yet: Fuel. I am not talking about the re-emergance of 4 stroke sleds. They still use gas and oil, so they are not a sustainable long term solution. Although they are quieter, more efficient and can be cleaner burning, they also change the performance equation with more torque and additional mass.

Eventually all motorized industries will have to deal with finding and adopting a sustainable fuel. There is only so much black goop in this rock. Having a sled be able to run on E85 is a start, but there may be durability issues in 2 strokes, while 4 strokes would be easier to convert by adapting automotive technology to the fuel injected 4 stroke motors.

I was asked at the RWC lunch on what I thought the fuel of future snowmobiles would be. I think there will probably always be a place for piston engines for the next 50 to 100 years or so. Chainsaws, generators, mowers, cars, truck and tractors for example. My guess is an engineered liquid bio-fuel.

I am not sure electric snowmobiles will ever make production in the next 10 to 20 years. Batteries will always have mass and energy storage issues, and they don't work well in freezing conditions either. Generating electricity on board with a generator adds tons of mass, but doing a direct drive electric motor removes the inefficency of the tension belt CVT.

Maybe, just maybe, Hydrogen Fuel Cells could be used to make electricity on board while emitting only water vapor. But, I think that would be another decade plus before the technology is cheap, durable and light weight enough to power a sled that meets the performance and legal requirements the OEM's will have to deal with over the next 10 to 20 years.

Maybe they will offer retro version of Fuel Cell Sleds...

-Rainville

B)

JD340S · Post by **JD340S** » Sun Mar 02, 2008 8:04 pm

kenwaters wrote: All good points Jon and Grant.

It is certainly safe to say that the brightest spot in the snowmobile industry is the vintage market. I foresee a contraction in the market to three manufacturers, and if they don't see that lightweight, less complex to work on, smoother design lines (not making them look like a stealth fighter) and retro decal packages (say a 600 cc Polaris Liquifire, a TXL with the seventies star stripe on the hood, a Moto Ski Super Sonic, the sexy hood striping on the mid seventies Arctic race sleds, or the dead gorgeous look of the Yamaha SSR) that are the wave of the future, then the remaining manufacturers will see even more of a contraction in the marketplace.

I think that the industry could use a touch of a wakeup, Ski-Doo has pounded its chest about the 400 lb TNT, Arctic proclaims it is the leader with suspension technology, Polaris claims the most powerful powerplant, and Yamaha says it's four stroke technology is the wave of the future. I think they could all take a look back and see that Deere was an industry leader ACROSS THE SPECTRUM way back when it came to producing lightweight, simple, easy on the eyes sleds that were based on product reliability and fuel efficeincy.

My brother in law just bought an 07 Arctic Cat F5 fuel injected snowmobile. I will say that after riding it compared to my lead sled (that would be the 800 cc Storm I ride) the bump soak is much improved, (it should be stated that my sled is not set up properly) but the mileage isn't significantly improved and the 80 hp powerplant is powerful enough for a 100 lb 16 yr old who wants to jump snowdrifts, but really doesn't fit me (or anyone who rides a 65 hp liquifire)that well.

Tougher emissions standards are coming, and it is really going to force the industry to take a long look at how power and reliability and fuel consumption can all equate to a "green" two stroke snowmobile. I think Yamaha will be the one to bow out of the sled market, their four stroke sleds are "assembly heavy" with little sucess on a heavily promoted race endeavour, minimal gains in fuel economy and expensive. I predict a return of the triple coupled with SDI to clean the emissions up, lightweight simple drivetrains as an industry standard and relying on their roots (decal packages and hood lines that appeal to vintage guys) to regain marketshare.

Duane, you really need to test ride a new sled, I mean put some serious trail miles on one, they really are easier on the knees than you think, you ride them more like a four wheeler. Not standing up like the snocross guys.

Kenny, what Ski Doo did with the TnT & the whole XP they have the right to pound their chest. They have significantly raised the bar. It isn't only the TnT that is light it's also 150+ hp 800 that are 425pnds. They have set a benchmark again as they did in 03 when they made it to #1 in sled sales. They will also stay there with their new E-tec 2 strokes & the under 500pnd XR chassis 4strokes. If you like the Stealth look or not that's subjective but the bottom line is the chassis works & is selling very well. Yes Yamaha sleds are on the heavier side, but you can't compare their lack of success on the Sno-X track to how the are selling in the real world. They are & always have appealed to a different group of buyers. Last year they came within 130 units sold to 2nd place in sales Polaris. About the only sled to get better fuel economy than Doo's SDI is the 3cyl Vector. Apex's run around 12-15, but what do you expect out of a 150HP sled. The guys buying these can afford it. They could in 97 when the V-Max 4 listed for over $10,000 with their $125 belts. Yamaha won't bow out. They are gaining more market share every year with argueably the most reliable sleds out there. Yamaha like Bombardier can absorb loss better than Cat & Polaris. Of any of the Mfg's getting close to bow out Polaris holds the title right now. Will it take Retro sleds to sell new ones. My personal opinion is no. It didn't work for Cat when they had the Z style F7 & the retro Panther didn't work that well either. The vintage segment is just a small percentage of people who are actually buying newer sleds. A 35 yr old guy who is not into old sleds will not identify with an RXL looking Polaris or Z style Cat. Sad fact is guys or girls into newer sleds might find the oldies "neat" but don't identify with them & are not interested in haveing their new ones trying to mimick them.

69camaro · Post by **69camaro** » Sun Mar 02, 2008 9:28 pm

I think maybe my post from before perhaps was not as clear as I should of been. I know the NEW sleds are superior to my 99 XC600 in almost every way. I guess my point is I do not care how nice they are. Until the manufacturers drop their prices and find new designers is the LOOKS department I personnally am not interested in them. I can't think of a John Deere sled that doesn't look better than any of the new iron. This Dragon and Bubblebee stuff just wierds me out. I can afford a NEW sled, they just don't do anything for me. My prediction is this will all come around when they realize you can build a nice sled that looks good too. Oh, and not overpriced. I almost never OVERPAY. Polaris, Arctic Cat, Ski-Doo, and Yamaha are not getting my money for a product that does't meet my standards. Duane

Danzig · Post by **Danzig** » Sun Mar 02, 2008 10:20 pm

Here Kitty, kitty, kitty...

400brian · Post by **400brian** » Mon Mar 03, 2008 2:23 am

Which snowmobile company do you want to be CEO of Jon?

Do you think it would help if we started a letter writing campaign?

69camaro · Post by **69camaro** » Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:23 am

JRC, I think my beloved Polaris could really use your help.

I think they need you right now. As much as I have backed them over the years something just does not seem right about them. If there was a company that would bow out I would also bet Polaris. I have a Snow Goer magazine from 1999 when they named the Polaris Indy XC700 sled of the year. How the mighty have fallen. I paged through and thought how nice all of the sleds that year looked. Polaris XC, Arctic ZR, Yahmaha SRX, and Ski Doo MXZ. Definately liked the graphics, seats, names, and overall appearance of those 99 models over the 08. Maybe my 13 year old has been around me too much. He also doesn't like the looks of the new sleds. He has a half a dozen buddies in 8th grade that are also into snowmobiling and one really, really likes the looks of the new ones and five prefer the looks of the older sleds. These young fellas someday will be in the market. Do the companies ever get opinions or do they leave everything up to a 22 year old engineer that watches snocross and has never trail ridden a sled. Help us JRC.

Duane

400brian · Post by **400brian** » Mon Mar 03, 2008 3:54 am

JRC, I think my beloved Polaris could really use your help. I think they need you right now.

That would be poetic justice, don't you think?

69camaro · Post by **69camaro** » Mon Mar 03, 2008 11:02 am

Right on Brian. How are you doing? My sister was up from Fort Atkinson this weekend and she said they had so much snow they didn't know what to do with it. Our trails took a little beating this weekend with the warm temps. The duel purpose trail look terrible. These are the snowmobile trail we have to share with ^%$^^%#ATV's. Seriously, from what I hear at rumer control Polaris could really use some new leadership. I vote for JRC. I think most everyone would not like to see any of the remaining four drop out. I think everyone here knows I am hung up on the prices and looks of the new sleds even though everything else about them is superior. I saw the ugliest (in my opinion) snowmobile ever built. The Yahmaha Phazer with out any body work. What a awesome looking sled under the skin. I imagined it with the body work closer to a Viper and some wind protection. I thought what a neat sled this could be. :rolleyes: Duane

Post by **JRC ETD** » Mon Mar 03, 2008 4:38 pm

Ummmmm......What can I say.....best nothing! You guys are to much.

jerryswiss · Post by **jerryswiss** » Mon Mar 03, 2008 7:54 pm

The new sleds look STUPID. I do not know about anywhere else, but in the west the only thing people want is the long track models. And they have got them so LONG now that there is no way you can turn them. They handle like crap! And half the time the only place people ride them is on the trail. It is all for show

It is like driving a high lift 4x4 pickup on city streets. It is just meant to impress people, but it is really silly. IMHO.

_FIII · Post by **_FIII** » Tue Mar 04, 2008 2:58 pm

jerryswiss wrote: the only thing people want is the long track models. And they have got them so LONG now that there is no way you can turn them. They handle like crap! And half the time the only place people ride them is on the trail. It is all for show

You are right about them being mostly for show, but work outstanding when a hill comes into view. Personally I was amazed how well they do turn. I used a 154" 2008 Summit back in Jan. for a weekend, and that thing will do a 180 in less than a ten foot wide patch. I would bet it will out turn and out maneuver any sled that is pre-1980. Looks are subjective (on new sleds)but no body can complain about their handling or performance. Especially against older sleds or if a person has never ridden a new one.

jerryswiss · Post by **jerryswiss** » Tue Mar 04, 2008 6:54 pm

They are going up to 163'' tracks, and I have not ridden anything that long, but the long tracks I have ridden I did not like. Yes, they are designed to climb mountains. But most of the people around here just ride them for show on the flats.

Those who do climb mountains usually end up killing themselves, getting caught in avalanches, and they cannot find the body until July. And when the tv station comes to interview the family they always say the same thing, "He was an expert, he has done this a hundred times." Then on attempt 101 the avalanche gets him.

There are old hill climbers and bold hill climbers, but no old, bold hill climbers!

In case you have not noticed, I do not think much of modern snowmobiles or their riders.

Liquifire 4/6 · Post by **Liquifire 4/6** » Tue Mar 04, 2008 7:32 pm

If 163" tracks are what it takes to climb a mountain, then all the power to the Rocky Mountain dwellers. But I'm nowhere near the mountains, and it seems everyone around my area is buying those type of sleds too. Then they can't figure out why their hyfax is shot in 300 miles.......Gee, do you think it might have something to do with running two inch paddles on our groomed trails? And they absolutely destroy the groomed trails which are getting very costly to maintain with todays fuel prices. I too, feel that it's all about showing everyone else up. It's like, "Look at all this money I have to waste on impractical sleds and gas guzzling pick up trucks with great big tires". Maybe I shouldn't say this as I know this is a family site, but I call that attitude "SPS".....I'm sure you can all figure out what that stands for. Oh and no offence intended, Richard. I'm sure you'll do the correct thing and buy a new non-paddle track Ski Doo

_FIII · Post by **_FIII** » Tue Mar 04, 2008 7:45 pm

You bet Pete! That summit was awesome when you get into a coulee with a few feet of powder, but for the few times that I venture into those it doesn't pay. My new Mxz will have the stock 120" track with the stock 1" lugs. That is all I will ever need. If I get a 400 pound 120 horse sled stuck then there are one of two things wrong. I either shouldn't be where I got stuck or I am not that good of a operator! Or maybe both?

S_Kyle · Post by **S_Kyle** » Tue Mar 04, 2008 8:52 pm

What pisses me off the most about new sleds/riders is when you get the 18 year old kids putting "cannons" on there sleds so you can hear them 1/2 a mile away. I have meet a few that say they love the sound there sleds make. There is just something about the scream of a 700 with a cannon that drives right through me.

Scott